Chips, especially smart chips, are the core of supporting the development of the new economy and investment in new infrastructure. The global pandemic of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic is a major test of the completeness and competitiveness of the smart chip industry chain in various countries, and it further highlights the importance of smart chips in the global economic development. China should further overcome the impact of the global epidemic, grasp the "window period" that further promotes the development of the smart chip industry, accelerate the layout of the industrial chain, and further build a relatively perfect smart chip industry system to support the high-quality development of China's economy and society.
The new coronary pneumonia epidemic delayed the recovery of the global smart chip industry and even caused the industry to shrink further. Affected by the slowdown in solid-state storage, mobile phone, PC and other terminal demand growth and global trade frictions, the global semiconductor market sales in 2019 were 412.1 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%, and the growth was the lowest in 10 years. With the global epidemic of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic, overall, affected by the epidemic, although the structural smart chip industry will increase in proportion, the probability of a decline in the overall scale is extremely high. The international research agency IDC predicts that 2020 The probability of a sharp contraction in the global semiconductor industry's revenue in 2010 is close to 80%.
The impact of the epidemic on the main links of the global smart chip industry chain shows a high degree of heterogeneity. The epidemic has greatly affected normal international trade and resource circulation, and has also caused a huge impact on the smart chip industry, which is highly subdivided in the industrial chain.
(1) The upstream equipment manufacturing enterprises are dragged down by downstream demand, and the order quantity and operating income are affected. For example, the Dutch lithography equipment giant ASML lowered its revenue forecast for the first quarter of 2020, reduced its revenue forecast by about 1/4, and canceled the US $ 20 billion share repurchase program; material suppliers are more affected, especially U.S. and Japanese companies that are in a controlling position in this field must not only resolve the impact of the epidemic on transportation and demand, but also face the impact of Japan-Korea trade friction and Sino-US trade friction. Some Japanese companies have relocated globally to consolidate Its position in the industry chain.
(2) The chip design enterprise is less affected by the epidemic, and the remote office after home isolation has reduced the impact of the epidemic to a certain extent; the manufacturing enterprise needs a high cleanness environment, which is highly compatible with the living environment required by the epidemic, and the industry production is relatively smooth . However, with the global epidemic, the isolation and flow restriction policies generally adopted by various countries affect the transportation of silicon wafers, photoresists, masks, electronic gases, wet chemicals and other materials, and the continuity of production by related companies will be affected. Larger impact; packaging and testing companies belong to industries with relatively high human investment in the smart chip industry chain. The impact of the epidemic will be more obvious and will have a systematic impact on the smart chip supply cycle. In general, the design-manufacture-package testing chain is driven by front-end design companies. In the case of insufficient short-term demand, the design company's counter-cyclical investment is constrained by the company's financial ability.
(3) The end consumer goods manufacturing enterprises are most directly affected. The economic slowdown and personnel and transportation control have affected both demand and supply. For example, Apple, Samsung and others have delayed the sale of new products.
While the epidemic affects the global smart chip industry chain, it also further highlights the importance of the chip industry in economic and social development. China should use its leading time advantage in epidemic prevention and control, increase policy support, accelerate the layout of the industrial chain and technological breakthroughs in key areas, achieve overtaking in certain industrial links, and improve the autonomy of the industrial chain.
（Article Source: China Social Science Network）